By Eric Streissler
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Extra resources for Exchange Rates and International Financial Markets: An Asset-Theoretic Perspective with Schumpeterian Innovation (The Graz Schumpeter Lectures)
45 See notes 18 and 19. 46 See Landauer, op. cit. Lecture III Equilibria? Interest parity and purchasing power parity – which kind of equilibria? 2 Is that true of exchange rates as well? Established exchange rate theory provides us with two equilibrium theories of exchange rates, totally convincing on theoretical grounds (at least at ﬁrst sight), but, as was pointed out already, unfortunately just as much wide of the mark empirically. The ﬁrst equilibrium theory, time-honoured, is purchasing power parity, (PPP).
The existence of a ‘natural’ price in the sense of Smith was very close to reality. Above all, such an average wheat price was well known to a numerous class of professional grain merchants and thus informationally efﬁcient. There, price stabilizing behaviour was therefore highly plausible. But the exchange rate is most emphatically not the wheat price. It is buffeted by much more than the easily ascertainable weather. 1b) In words: the expected value of xt is just the previously achieved value xtϪ1 and its expected change is zero.
3 Implied rather than explicitly stated in Robert E. Mundell, International Economics, New York–London 1968, ch. 18 (and originally in his 1963 article in the Canadian Journal of Economics). 4 Rita Landauer, Kausalitätsanalyse zwischen kurzfristigen Zinssätzen und Wechselkursen (DM zu Yen, US-$ und Pfund Sterling), Master’s thesis, University of Vienna, 1998. ’, Economic Journal, 109 (1999a), 673–91, thinks that even inﬂation rates are affected (p. ’ 5 For the case of the Bundesbank see Richard Clarida and Mark Gertler, ‘How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy’, in: Christina D.
Exchange Rates and International Financial Markets: An Asset-Theoretic Perspective with Schumpeterian Innovation (The Graz Schumpeter Lectures) by Eric Streissler