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Additional resources for OECD Economic Surveys: New Zealand 2011
Potential output has suffered The global financial crisis has probably resulted in a permanent reduction in most OECD countries’ potential output, in part due to capital decumulation, and it may have also led to a rise in structural unemployment, possible hysteresis in labour supply and a fall in total factor productivity (see OECD, 2010, Chapter 4). 5). 5. Components of potential growth in New Zealand and Australia compared 5 TFP growth Capital input Labour input A. New Zealand Potential growth 5 B.
Soon thereafter, however, it became apparent that domestic growth was faltering. The Bank decided in its September review to pause in its interest-rate hikes. Previously it had also signalled that the end-point of the tightening cycle may be at a lower OCR level than in previous episodes. One reason is that retail interest rate-OCR margins have widened for the time being, reflecting both higher risk aversion and tighter bank liquidity regulations following the recession, which has effectively lowered the neutral rate of the OCR compared with the past.
Also, insurance and reinsurance premia will most likely rise, perhaps significantly given the large present costs, putting a new financial burden on government as well as homeowners and businesses. Economic impacts The economic recovery that was expected to accompany rebuilding from the September earthquake is likely to be delayed by several quarters, especially as the most recent quake came on top of an unexpectedly weak economy in the second half of 2010. These economic impacts are highly uncertain and should be distinguished as follows: 28 ● In Christchurch, the earthquake has caused considerable short-term disruption to production, especially in the March quarter during much of which the CBD was closed off.
OECD Economic Surveys: New Zealand 2011 by OECD